中國作家協會主管

出版的前景與出版的理由

出版作為一個歷史悠久的產業，長期能夠得以存在，是因為它提供的專業化服務能夠讓作者寫作的內容能夠被公眾閱讀，以及更容易被廣泛閱讀。出版，借助技術手段，把人對自身、世界的認知結果公開呈現、傳播，它是一種既有文化屬性又有信息屬性的社會化活動。出版業的核心能力是對文化及信息內容的處理能力，擁有專業出版技能的編輯和機構對蘊含著思想與知識的信息內容進行專業化的發現、加工、傳播，自主或輔助作者讓思想與知識的創新不斷得以呈現。

出版開始成為產業是因為印刷術，印刷術是人類近代文明的先導，為知識的廣泛傳播、交流創造了條件。印刷術對世界文明進程和人類文化發展產生了重大影響。出版業的發展一直受制于傳播載體。從甲骨金石、竹簡木牘，到絲帛紙張，再到今天的顯示屏、互聯網，在人類思想文化傳播進程中，抽象的思想與知識一直需要通過這些載體呈現、傳播。而每一種新的傳播介質的廣泛應用，主要都是因為它比上一代載體更加經濟和便捷。

今天，因為信息技術和互聯網的進步，出版正在發生巨大變革。數字出版已經在全球范圍廣泛普及，閱讀的載體早就不再局限于紙張，大批讀者接受并習慣了使用電腦、電子閱讀器、手機等屏幕閱讀，電子書、網絡出版分走了紙書相當大份額的市場。個人出版也在不少國家發展迅猛。

幾年前，就有不少人預測紙質出版將要消亡，判定數字出版和個人出版就是出版業的未來！在未來，不再需要出版社了，每個人都可以是作家，自由地發表作品并從中受益，甚至有資深出版人明確指出紙書將終結在哪一年。時間的腳步一直沒有停下，閱讀需求持續旺盛，但傳統出版業并沒有出現預言中巨大的下行拐點，今天大家發現紙書市場的萎縮開始在逐步放緩，甚至還有了些許回暖。

在北京開卷信息技術公司發布的《2016年度國內外圖書零售市場報告》中，2016年，中國圖書零售市場總規模為701億元，較2015年的624億元同比增長12.30%，新書品種數約為21.03萬，同比上年增長4.31%，連續五年保持穩定。少兒、文學、教輔三大細分類別是市場增長的主要推動力。文學同比增長率在16.1%。中國國家新聞出版廣電總局發布的《2015年新聞出版產業分析報告》中，2015年紙書的銷售相較于2014年，不但沒有下降，反而有所增長。2015年全國共出版圖書47.6萬種，較2014年增長6.1%。圖書出版實現營業收入822.6億元，比上一年增長4.0%；利潤總額125.3億元，增長了7.0%； 2015年出版重印圖書21.5萬種，增加2.3萬種，增長11.9%。重印圖書46.2億冊（張），增加4.9億冊（張），增長11.8%，大幅超過新版圖書。書籍單品種平均印數有所增加，當年累計印數超過百萬冊的書籍由2014年的66種增加到68種。這些數據都表明，傳統出版業盡管增長緩慢，但并不缺乏活力。

不可否認，近年來科技的創新確實給緩慢發展了幾百年的出版業帶來了巨大的沖擊。技術進步，特別是數字技術和網絡技術快速發展、不斷完善，加速了出版業的實質性轉型。數字技術、網絡技術已經深層次地滲透進出版業，對出版業產品、載體、渠道等產生明顯沖擊。以移動互聯網等為代表的新一代信息技術正在使傳統出版業產生更深層次的變革，在各個方面推動創新。可以說，數字網絡技術正在深刻改變著出版業，改變出版的模式、方式以及載體的形式。

需求的變化也在影響著出版業的變化。今天的年輕人越來越習慣在屏幕上獲取信息，紙質出版物在他們的閱讀中占比越來越低。人們整體的閱讀習慣正在發生趨勢性改變，電子書、網絡出版、自出版等新模式逐漸普及，獲取極為便捷。

雖然數字出版等新的出版形式越來越成為出版的重要構成，但在一個比較長的時期內，中國閱讀市場中紙質書應該還會繼續是出版的主要形式。首先，是人們長期以來養成的閱讀習慣難以徹底改變，尤其是中年以上閱讀者，他們習慣了紙質閱讀介質，閱讀對他們來說，不僅僅是獲取信息和知識的手段，還是他們生活方式的一部分，所以，只要有可能，紙質讀物還會是他們長期選擇的選項；其次，不少內容的呈現在目前階段，還沒有更適合的紙質介質替代物；第三，數字出版在中國因為商業模式尚未成熟、產業鏈條不完善、技術更迭過快等原因，沒能出現預想中的高速增長，而且它所遇到的難題幾乎無法跨越：數字出版的主要內容基本都來源于紙書。只要數字出版不能建立起一條完整的出版產業鏈，在內容生產端還依賴傳統出版業，就遠遠談不上顛覆傳統出版業；第四，技術的發展在有利于數字出版的同時，也會助力傳統紙質出版的發展。活字印刷術發明之前，出版要耗費大量人力物力財力刻版，技術的進步，讓活字印刷快速取而代之，使得文化的傳播爆發式增長。今天科技的進步，使得紙質出版必不可少的排版校對印刷裝訂等工藝更加便捷，對于熟練技術工人的需求大幅降低，加上高速印刷、機械裝訂使得規模生產極為便捷，生產成本直線下降；第五，按需印刷的普及讓小印量紙質出版輕而易舉。出版印刷行業的技術進步也正在讓紙質圖書生產成本更低。

近年來，因為互聯網技術的快速發展，每個人都可以把自己寫作的內容輕易上傳發布。可以每次發布一個章節，也可以全文發布。閱讀者可以對作品內容糾錯，提出建議。作者與讀者隨時互動，作者甚至可以選擇按照多數讀者愿望繼續創作。在中國，互聯網原創文學網站一度盛極一時。無數草根作者發現自己能夠徹底擺脫傳統寫作發表、出版的束縛，按照自己意愿寫作，將作品隨時上傳到文學網站平臺，實現比傳統出版更廣泛的傳播，因而爆發出極大創作熱情，僅閱文集團各平臺每天更新的文學作品字數以億計算。作者自己也能獨立完成從內容創作到制作電子書，并在網絡平臺傳播獲利的全過程，打破了以往傳統的內容出版需要借助專業編輯和機構實現的模式。同時，自出版形式也在很多國家快速發展。既然有那么多作者正在自己完成出版過程，作品得到廣泛傳播，且收入不菲。那么，個人化出版是否能徹底改變游戲規則？現有出版模式是否因此將被終結呢？

看樣子沒這么簡單。

大部分作者寫完一部書稿，一般會有幾個需求：一，專業的校訂和修正；二，傳播給更多的讀者；三，獲取最多的經濟收益。而這正是傳統出版社一直給作者提供的專業服務。盡管專業服務有時并不有效，大量優質內容經出版機構做了各種努力還是沒能如愿廣泛傳播，甚至無數好書被號稱經驗豐富的出版人忽視。全球暢銷的JK·羅琳的《哈利波特》曾經被多家出版社拒絕出版，我工作的作家出版社出版的《好媽媽勝過好老師》累計銷售接近700萬冊，而當年籍籍無名的作者尹建莉拿著書稿找來之前，也曾被好幾家出版社退稿。但是從現在情況看，更多的作者還是選擇將自己的作品交給出版機構來出版紙質圖書甚至是電子書。出版機構的優勢在于長期的資源和品牌積累、大量優秀專業編輯、對作品精細打磨的能力和對渠道市場的專注。圖書，特別是文學圖書，有著豐富經驗的編輯給文本和傳播過程帶來的提升，往往是極有價值的。作家的作品想要進入大眾閱讀市場，光書籍的版式、開本、材料、定價、促銷活動等等這些編輯出版發行細節技巧，都不是一般人能夠全面掌握的。由專業的人做專業的事情顯然更容易達成目標，同時使利益最大化。

專業的出版很難被個體化的出版行為替代，但現有的出版模式顯然已經不能滿足當下的需求。科技進步正在催生新的出版內容、產品、載體和出版模式，并為出版業創新商業模式奠定基礎。技術的不斷升級推動出版業轉型升級，閱讀交互技術、應用于閱讀產品的多媒體技術等正在不斷成熟，文字、語音、圖像等要素之間的轉換將大大提速。出版產品將廣泛拓展到廣播、電視、音像、電影等多種形態，多媒體、跨媒體、超媒體模式正在陸續出現。在新技術的支持下，能看、能聽、能聞、能虛像演示、能參與的產品已經隨處可見，大量圖書將出現在可穿戴設備上，數字閱讀大范圍普及，圖書的移動性、交互性等特征快速增強。以大數據、智能機器人技術等為基礎的“智能寫作”將大范圍出現，并部分替代人類寫作，成為出版重要的內容來源。寫作新聞稿的機器人現在已經是不少媒體的標配，很快，智能機器人寫作的文學作品也會吸引不少閱讀者的眼球。同時，“智能出版”模式也將快速發展。未來的出版業將越來越依賴先進技術的支持，先進技術也將推動出版業更深層次的升級甚至革命。出版的眾籌模式更加普及，自出版模式將走向成熟，在出版流程、分成模式等方面的優勢將更加凸顯。語音轉換、文字翻譯等技術的成熟，勢必出現具有顛覆性的“全球出版模式”。銷售渠道、營銷模式也都正在發生實質性變化。傳統出版與新興出版的融合正在日益加速。當出版不再作為孤立的出版，而是作為內容產業源頭，自身也就有了更多的可能性。

未來的誘惑，有我們已知的，更多來自于我們未知的。讓我們一起去尋找那些至今還隱藏著的未知，看出版還能給世界帶來什么。

Prospects and Reasons of Publishing

Liu Fang

As a long-standing industry which remains in existence for a long time, publication provides specialized services that allow authors to write content that can be easily read by the public more extensively. With the support of technology, it enables people to openly present and spread cognition of themselves and the world. So it is a social activity with both cultural and informative properties. The core competence of the publishing industry is the ability to deal with cultural and informative content. Editors and institutions with professional publishing skill specialize in discovering, processing, disseminating ideas and knowledge. They also autonomously deal with or assist authors in the innovation of ideas and knowledge.

Publication grew into an industry as a result of printing, which is the precursor of modern civilization and the widespread dissemination and communication of knowledge. Printing has had a significant impact on the development of world civilizations and human culture. The development of the publishing industry has been subject to the carrier of communication. In the development of human thought and culture from symbols on bones, stones, bamboo slips to words on silk and paper and then to what we can observe in the modern world such as the Internet, abstract ideas and knowledge must be presented and spread through these carriers. New media platform emerges mainly because it is more economical and convenient than previous methods.

Today, because of the progress of IT and the Internet, publishing is undergoing tremendous changes. Digital publishing has become widely popular throughout the world with the carrier no longer confined to paper. A large number of readers have accepted and been accustomed to the use of computers, e-readers, mobile phones and other screen reading. E-books and online publication have grabbed a big share of the market. Personal publishing is also developing rapidly in many countries.

A few years ago, there were many people who predicted that paper publishing would die out, and that digital publishing and personal publishing were the future of this industry. In the future, publishers would be no longer needed, because everyone could be a writer, free to publish their own work and benefit from it. A senior publisher even clearly pointed out when paper books would become abandoned. The pace of time has not ceased and the demand for reading has continued strong, however the huge inflection point did not appear in the traditional publishing industry as predicted. Today we have found that the sluggish paper book market has begun to recover gradually.

According to the Report on China’s Retailing Book Market at Home and Abroad 2016 released by OpenBook, in the year 2016, the total retail market of Chinese books was worth 70.1 billion yuan, up by 12.30% year on year, compared with 62.4 billion yuan in 2015. The number of varieties of new books was about 210,300 with an increase of 4.31% over the previous year. That implies growth for five consecutive years. Children’s literature and Teaching-aid books are the main driving force of market growth with literature growing at a rate of 16.1%. China’s State General Administration of Press and Publication, Radio and Television released the Press and Publication Industry Report 2015, which states that the sales of paper books in 2015 did not decline but increased when compared to 2014. A total of 476,000 books were published nationwide in 2015, up by 6.1% from 2014. Book publishing generated an operating income of 82.26 billion yuan, up by 4.0% over the previous year. The total profit reached 12.53 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%. 215,000 kinds of books were published or reprinted in 2015, an increase of 23,000, or an increase of 11.9%. 4.62 billion copies of books were reprinted, an increase of 490 million copies, or an increase of 11.8%, significantly more than the new version of the books. The average number of copies of books increased and the number of books of more than one million copies has increased from 66 in 2014 to 68 in 2015. These statistics show that the traditional publishing industry is not lacking in vitality despite the slow growth.

Undeniably, in recent years, innovation in technology has indeed brought a huge impact to the publishing industry which has grown slowly for hundreds of years. Technological progress, especially the rapid development and constant improvement of digital technology and network technology has accelerated the substantive transformation of the publishing industry. Digital technology and network technology has deeply penetrated this industry, exerting a significant impact on products, carriers and channels, etc. The new generation of IT, represented by mobile Internet, is leading the traditional publishing industry into deeper transformation and innovation in all of its aspects. It can be said that digital network technology is profoundly changing the industry, including its publishing model, means and the form of its carrier.

Changes in demand also affect the industry. Today’s young people are getting used to receiving information via the screen and paper publications are attracting a smaller and smaller group of readers. People’s overall reading habits are changing, with e-books, network publishing, self-publishing and other new models becoming gradually more popular and more accessible.

Although new forms of publication such as digital publishing have become an important part of this sector, paper books in Chinese reading markets should continue to be the main forms of publication over a relatively long period of time. First of all, it is difficult for people to completely change their reading habits which have developed over a long time, especially for middle-aged readers who are used to paper reading media. Reading for them is not just access to information and knowledge, but a way of life. For as long as it is possible, paper books will still be their long-term choice. Secondly, there are no other suitable alternatives to paper media for a lot of content presented at the current stage. Third, digital publishing in China has not grown as expected due to the business model not being perfect and technology changing too fast, as well as the industrial chain not being complete, and the problems it encounters are almost impossible to overcome: the majority of digital publishing content comes from paper books. As long as digital publishing fails to establish a complete industry chain and relies on the traditional publishing industry for content production, it is far from overturning the latter. Fourth, the development of technology which is in favor of digital publishing will help the progress of the traditional industry at the same time. Before the invention of word printing, engraving and publication consumed a significant amount of human and material resources. However, technical progress has enabled word printing to rapidly replace traditional methods, allowing an explosive growth in the spread of culture. The progress of today’s technology makes typesetting, proof printing and binding processes, essential to paper publishing more convenient and significantly reducing the demand for skilled workers. High-speed printing and mechanical binding conveniently increases the scale of production and reduces costs dramatically. Fifth, the popularity of on-demand printing facilitates small scale printing and paper publishing. The technological advances in the publishing industry are also lowering the cost of producing paper books.

In recent years, thanks to the rapid development of Internet technology, everyone can write and easily post his or her own work online. You can publish a chapter each time, or you can also publish the full text. Readers can correct the contents of the work and can even make recommendations. Authors and readers can interact at any time, and authors can even follow the aspirations of most readers in their creation. In China, the website of original literature was once very popular. Numerous grassroots writers found themselves able to completely abandon the shackles of traditional writing publication. Writing according to their own wishes, they can upload their work at any time to literary websites reaching a larger audience than traditional publishing. In this way, they have generated a lot of creative enthusiasm. On the platforms of China Reading Limited, there are literary works with hundreds of millions of words updated every day. Authors themselves can independently complete the process from content creation, the production of e-books, to profit-gaining from the reach of the network. They have broken the model of traditional publishing which necessitates professional editing and institutional implementation. At the same time, self-publishing is also rapidly developing in many countries. Since so many authors are completing their own publishing process, works are widely disseminated and generate a large number of financial returns. So, is it possible to completely change the rules of the game? Will the existing publishing model end?

It seems difficult.

Most authors generally have several needs after writing a manuscript: First, professional correction and amendment; Second, reaching more readers; Third, achieving maximum financial returns. These are the professional services the traditional publishing house has provided to authors. Such services are not always effective, for a large number of high-quality content has failed to reach large numbers even with the efforts of publishing houses. Moreover, countless good books are often ignored by the so-called experienced publishers. The world’s best-selling JK Rowling’s Harry Potter had been refused to publish by a number of publishers. The Writers Publishing House which I am working for published the A Good Mother is Better than a Teacher with a total sale of nearly 7 million copies. But the author Yin Jianli who was totally unknown by then had been rejected by several publishers before she presented her manuscripts to us. It seems that now more authors still choose to send their work to the publishing house to publish paper books and even e-books. The advantages of this are long-term resources and branding, a large number of outstanding professional editors, the ability to fine grind works and a focus on the channel market. Books, especially literary books, can have their value added and the text and dissemination improved if they are at the hand of editors with rich experience. For a writer’s work to enter the market, skills related to typesetting, format, materials, pricing, promotional activities, etc. are needed and are hard to grasp comprehensively for an ordinary person. Professional people are more suitable for helping a writer achieve their goal while maximizing the benefits.

Professional publishing is difficult to be replaced with individualized publishing, but the existing publishing model clearly fails to meet current needs. Scientific and technological progress is giving birth to new publishing content, products, carriers and publishing models, and laying the foundation for innovative business models for the industry. The continuous upgrading of technology promotes the transformation and upgrading of the industry. Reading interactive technology and multimedia products used in reading products are becoming mature, speeding up the conversion between texts, voice, image and other elements greatly. Publishing products will be widely expanded to radio, television, audio and video, film and other forms. Multimedia, cross-media, hypermedia models are emerging. With the support of new technology, products that enable us to see, hear, smell, present virtual images, and participate in themselves are prevalent. A large number of books will appear in wearable equipment. Digital reading will become more and more popular, with stronger book mobility and interaction. The Smart Writing based on large data and intelligent robot technology will emerge in large scale and partially replace human writing as an important source of content for publishing. Robots writing press releases is now a standard component for a lot of media platforms and works written by intelligent robots will soon attract a lot of readers’ attention in the near future. At the same time, the Smart Publishing model will also enjoy rapid development. The future of the industry will rely more on the support of advanced technology, which will also promote the industry to a new level or even create a revolution. Crowd funding publishing is becoming more popular, and self-publishing model is getting mature with advantages more prominent in the publishing process and dividend sharing. The maturity of voice conversion, text translation and other technologies will give rise to a subversive Global Publishing Model. Substantial changes take place in sales channels and marketing models. The convergence of traditional and emerging publishing is accelerating. When it is no longer isolated, but serves as the source of the content industry, publishing will have more possibilities.

Some temptations of the future are known but more often they come from the world we don’t know. Let us work together to find the unknown and see what the publishing industry can bring to the world.